FREEradicals - The Real IRA car bomb in Northern Ireland: the political significance

The Real IRA car bomb in Northern Ireland: the political significance

The Real IRA, the dissident republican terrorist organisation, has admitted that it was responsible for the car bomb early this morning, which exploded within a mile of the MI5 headquarters on the outskirts of Holywood, County Down. A full report is available here but the bomb was loud enough to resonate across both sides of Belfast Lough, reminding residents of the worst years of the Troubles.

The timing of the explosion, at 0020 BST, was designed to coincide with the moment policing and justice powers were devolved to Northern Ireland’s local power-sharing government. Police said that no telephone warning was given and it is extremely lucky that no serious casualties have yet to be reported. Nonetheless, the fact that the Real IRA could get so close to such an important target, at so sensitive a moment – when an attack was anticipated – will be regarded as an important propaganda victory by the dissidents. It is also likely to raise questions about long-term effects of the devolution of policing and justice powers and the capacity of the security services to handle what seems to be a growing threat.

In one important sense, the dissident republican movement is notably different from that of its predecessor, represented by the Provisional IRA and Sinn Fein: that is, in the limited stock the movement places on political activity as a means of achieving victory. While the Real IRA and other dissident groups do use political outlets, they are also aware that they do not have the means or the support to play the electoral game as effectively as Sinn Fein have done since the early 1980s. Among the dissidents there is a strong belief, based in history, that engagement with politics has corrupted and undermined the purity of the movement on a number of occasions.

At the same time, however, the timing of this latest act is confirmation that the dissidents retain an acute sense of political timing. There has been a steady continuation of attempted bombings and shootings for a number of months in Northern Ireland but this is arguably the most headline-grabbing act by the Real IRA since the murder of two British soldiers in Northern Ireland in March 2009. Many analysts believe that the frequency and scale of attacks is likely to increase further in the run-up to the general election, as they are seek to achieve as large an audience as possible and optimise the opportunity to destabilise the wider political situation.
The choice and timing of the MI5 centre in Belfast is not just designed to grab the attention of the UK government. It also represents an attempt to fire an ideological volley into republican circles and to challenge the narrative of the peace process offered by the Sinn Fein leadership. The MI5 centre in Holywood is not a bastion of colonial British rule in Ireland, or an old symbol of historical oppression. It is a new and state-of-the-art building, first opened in 2007, and with a much more extensive remit than Northern Ireland-related issues.

According to the MI5 website, it “was established in addition to a network of nine regional stations around the UK, which the Service began to establish from 2005 onwards in response to the nationwide threat from international terrorism … [and] provides a possible contingency fall-back location if our London headquarters is unavailable for use.” In other words, it is seen as a crucial back-up centre for the intelligence service should the London headquarters ever come under attack.

For dissident republicans, the building of a new MI5 base is a confirmation that the British state is actually strengthening its position in Northern Ireland with a long-term intention to maintain a presence on Irish shores. This is a direct challenge to the Sinn Fein narrative, which holds that the peace process is a building block in the slow march to a united Ireland. Sinn Fein would prefer its core supporters to forget that the MI5 building is there, precisely because they know it is not going away any time soon. The Real IRA are therefore speaking directly to a republican audience, saying that they are the only organisation really still committed to forcing the British out of Ireland.

As for the devolution of policing and justice, this remains a controversial political issue in Northern Ireland. Traditionally, the unionist community have been most sensitive about changes to the police service in Northern Ireland; the replacement of the Royal Ulster Constabulary with the Police Service of Northern Ireland was one of the most important issues in undermining support for David Trimble, for example.

However, there also remains a core component of Sinn Fein’s natural support base which is of the opinion that the police service has not changed as much as it should have done and is still very hard to palate. With the devolution of policing and justice, the Sinn Fein leadership are now required to back the security services more strongly than ever before. Many of its traditional supporters will be less than comfortable with this development, a fact that the Real IRA is eager to highlight.

It would be extremely difficult for the Real IRA or other dissident groups to bring Northern Ireland back to the cycle of sectarian violence which characterised the conflict in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. But it is clear that they do retain a capacity for a spectacular and deadly attack.

Having spoken to a number of experts this morning, I should report one final piece of informed speculation. A number of recent attempted dissident attacks have been foiled or disrupted by the excellent cooperation between the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) and police from the Republic of Ireland: one clear dividend of the peace process. However, there is a growing worry that the dissidents are getting a stronger hold in Belfast than they have done for many years; last night’s attack started with a taxi being hijacked in north Belfast. The reform of the police and the devolution of policing and justice powers were both implemented with peace and progress in mind. But the reality is that the devolved police force now faces a serious and ongoing campaign by experienced and determined terrorists and will have to learn quickly to stand on its own two feet.

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FREErad!cals is the ICSR blog. It's a forum for debate and fresh ideas on radicalisation and political violence. It features some of the most innovative, young thinkers, discussing radicals and radicalisation. They are looking at how the challenge has been understood, and how it should be addressed.